State of Immigration Report: December 2025
A year-end review of policy shifts, approval rates, and what to expect in 2026.
2025 in Review
2025 was a stabilizing year after the volatility of the fee hikes in 2024. USCIS focused on modernization and backlog reduction.
Approval Rates
- O-1A: Remains high (~90% with strong representation). The "tech founder" profile is now well-recognized by adjudicators.
- EB-1A: Scrutiny has increased. The "Final Merits Determination" is being applied more aggressively to weed out borderline cases.
- NIW: Approval rates remain solid, particularly for STEM fields (AI, biotech, climate tech).
Policy Wins
The clarification on "STEM Entrepreneurs" for NIW cases has made it easier for founders to self-petition without needing a traditional employer sponsor for the I-140.
The "Modernization" Push
Online filing expanded (as seen with I-140). We expect 2026 to bring digital processing to I-485s and H-1Bs in a more meaningful way.
Looking Ahead to 2026
We anticipate a potential refresh of the Schedule A occupation list (which could fast-track Green Cards for certain tech roles) and continued debates over H-1B lottery reform.
Conclusion
The US remains the top destination for global talent, but the bar for entry—specifically for "extraordinary" visas—remains high. Quality of evidence is paramount.